Development of a TIMES model for Côte d’Ivoire

Project description

The general objective of the research work is to support Côte d’Ivoire in defining an energy transition strategy for 2050, in line with the fight against poverty and the long-term objectives set by the Paris Agreement.

Within this overall framework, the programme of activities aims to meet the following two specific objectives:

1. to produce decision-making tools that will enable the Ministry of Petroleum, Energy and Renewable Energies (MPEER) and the Ministry of Planning and Development of the Republic of Côte d’Ivoire to take account of the challenges of combating poverty and climate change in its energy transition policy (electricity production and cooking energy); and
2. strengthen national capacities (possibly MPEER, CI-ENERGIES, INPHB, CAPEC) in energy sector modelling and in understanding the links between the energy transition trajectory, the fight against poverty and the fight against climate change;

The first part of the programme of activities would be the development phase of the TIMES decision support tool for the electricity sector in Côte d’Ivoire. Mines ParisTech’s Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées will propose a first version of the model, with its architecture and prospective hypotheses classified into scenarios. These conceptual elements will be discussed by the steering committee and any proposals will be incorporated into the modelling as far as possible.

The second part of the work programme will focus on the macroeconomic impacts of the various scenarios. From a technical point of view, a coupling between a macroeconomic model developed at the AFD (with the support of CAPEC) and the TIMES model is envisaged. This phase will enable the assessment of the socio-economic impacts of the different scenarios on the major macroeconomic indicators. In addition, this stage will provide an initial classification of the scenarios in terms of their ability to create conditions conducive to poverty reduction. This classification will be based on several indicators, including the cost of energy and the macroeconomic conditions (GDP, consumption, investment, degree of mobilisation of domestic resources) of the different scenarios identified. This macroeconomic approach will be supplemented by the definition of other relevant socio-economic indicators, such as the number of jobs and the number of people benefiting from a sustainable increase in income (particularly in relation to biomass supply chains). At the end of this phase, once the results have been validated by the steering committee, the work could be compiled into technical documents and a summary document for public decision-makers.

The third part of the work programme will focus on modelling the cooking sector, which alone is responsible for around half of Côte d’Ivoire’s energy consumption. Given the lack of statistical data on cooking energy consumption in Côte d’Ivoire, this third part of the work programme will propose an initial prospective model. This model will be based on the same foundations as the first part of the work programme.

The work programme will include one or two training sessions. These training sessions will enable stakeholders to become users and possibly developers of the resources developed as part of this research work.