Sujet: Integrated modeling of the global energy system for pathways with carbon dioxide removal

Sous la direction de : Sandrine SELOSSE (CMA Mines Paris – PSL)

Cette thèse bénéficie du soutien de la Chaire Modélisation prospective au service du développement durable

Résumé (version courte) : To mitigate climate change and limit the temperature increase to below 1.5°C by 2100, as outlined in the Paris Agreement, achieving net zero CO₂ emissions by mid-century is crucial. Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) options play a pivotal role in this effort by capturing and storing CO₂, both from natural processes and anthropogenic sources. In this context, this thesis explores the integration of CDR technologies into the world energy system using the French version of TIMES Integrated Assessment Model (TIAM-FR) developed at the CMA, Mines Paris-PSL. TIMES is a methodological corpus developed under the IEA’s Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program (ETSAP).  The model combines energy system modeling based on technology rich, bottom-up optimization as well as insights of climate dynamics. For the assessment of CDR-driven pathways, the long-term role of Bioenergy Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) and other CDR are investigated in detail. By capturing the challenges related to land and water constraints, we construct long-term pathways, emphasizing the significance of optimal and sustainable biomass sourcing. The work includes a methodological approach for enriching the energy model with land-based CDR solutions using the Global Biosphere Management Model from the International Institute of Applied Sciences (IIASA). The thesis calls for careful consideration of policy choices, technological innovations, and resource management to ensure the scaling of CDR solutions within the broader context of global climate and sustainability goals.

Mots clés : Carbon dioxide removal, net zero pathways, TIAM-FR, optimization, Land use, biomass sourcing, Climate mitigation, Paris Agreement

La soutenance se tiendra en anglais.